Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 in New York City: Model Development and Validation

Akhil Vaid   ¹ , MD ;   Sulaiman Somani   ^{1 *} , BSc ;   Adam J Russak   ^{1, 2 *} , MD ;   Jessica K De Freitas   ^{1, 3} , BSc ;   Fayzan F Chaudhry   ^{1, 3} , BSc ;   Ishan Paranjpe   ¹ , BSc ;   Kipp W Johnson   ³ , PhD ;   Samuel J Lee   ¹ , BSc ;   Riccardo Miotto   ^{1, 3} , PhD ;   Felix Richter   ^{1, 3} , PhD ;   Shan Zhao   ^{1, 4} , MD, PhD ;   Noam D Beckmann   ³ , PhD ;   Nidhi Naik   ¹ , MSc ;   Arash Kia   ^{5, 6} , MD ;   Prem Timsina   ^{5, 6} , PhD ;   Anuradha Lala   ^{5, 7} , MD ;   Manish Paranjpe   ⁸ , BSc ;   Eddye Golden   ¹ , MPH ;   Matteo Danieletto   ¹ , PhD ;   Manbir Singh   ¹ , BBA ;   Dara Meyer   ³ , MSc ;   Paul F O'Reilly   ^{3, 9, 10} , PhD ;   Laura Huckins   ^{3, 9, 10} , PhD ;   Patricia Kovatch   ¹¹ , BSc ;   Joseph Finkelstein   ⁵ , MD, PhD ;   Robert M. Freeman   ^{5, 6} , MBA, RN ;   Edgar Argulian   ^{12, 13} , MD, MPH ;   Andrew Kasarskis   ^{3, 5, 14, 15} , PhD ;   Bethany Percha   ² , PhD ;   Judith A Aberg   ^{2, 16} , MD ;   Emilia Bagiella   ^{6, 7} , PhD ;   Carol R Horowitz   ^{2, 5} , MD, MPH ;   Barbara Murphy   ² , MD ;   Eric J Nestler   ^{17, 18} , MD, PhD ;   Eric E Schadt   ^{3, 14} , PhD ;   Judy H Cho   ¹⁹ , MD ;   Carlos Cordon-Cardo   ²⁰ , MD, PhD ;   Valentin Fuster   ^{7, 12, 13} , MD, PhD ;   Dennis S Charney   ²¹ , MD ;   David L Reich   ⁴ , MD ;   Erwin P Bottinger   ^{1, 22} , MD ;   Matthew A Levin   ^{3, 4} , MD ;   Jagat Narula   ^{12, 13} , MD, PhD ;   Zahi A Fayad   ^{23, 24} , PhD ;   Allan C Just   ^{25 *} , PhD ;   Alexander W Charney   ^{3, 9, 10 *} , MD, PhD ;   Girish N Nadkarni   ^{1, 2, 19 *} , MD, MPH ;   Benjamin S Glicksberg   ^{1, 3 *} , PhD

¹ The Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health at Mount Sinai, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

² Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

³ Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

⁴ Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

⁵ Department of Population Health Science and Policy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

⁶ Institute for Healthcare Delivery Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

⁷ The Zena and Michael A. Wiener Cardiovascular Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

⁸ Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States

⁹ The Pamela Sklar Division of Psychiatric Genomics, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁰ The Department of Psychiatry, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹¹ Mount Sinai Data Warehouse, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹² Mount Sinai Heart, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹³ Department of Cardiology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁴ Icahn Institute for Data Science and Genomic Technology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁵ Mount Sinai Data Office, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁶ Division of Infectious Diseases, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁷ Nash Family Department of Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁸ Friedman Brain Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

¹⁹ The Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

²⁰ Department of Pathology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

²¹ Office of the Dean, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

²² Digital Health Center, Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

²³ BioMedical Engineering and Imaging Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

²⁴ Department of Radiology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

²⁵ Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States

*these authors contributed equally