TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rezende, Karina Bilda De Castro
AU  - Cunha, Antonio José Ledo Alves
AU  - Amim Jr, Joffre
AU  - Oliveira, Wescule De Moraes
AU  - Leão, Maria Eduarda Belloti
AU  - Menezes, Mariana Oliveira Alves
AU  - Jardim, Ana Alice Marques Ferraz De Andrade
AU  - Bornia, Rita Guérios
PY  - 2019
DA  - 2019/11/22
TI  - Performance of Fetal Medicine Foundation Software for Pre-Eclampsia Prediction Upon Marker Customization: Cross-Sectional Study
JO  - J Med Internet Res
SP  - e14738
VL  - 21
IS  - 11
KW  - decision support techniques
KW  - mass screening
KW  - pre-eclampsia
KW  - ethnicity
KW  - algorithms
AB  - Background: FMF2012 is an algorithm developed by the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) to predict pre-eclampsia on the basis of maternal characteristics combined with biophysical and biochemical markers. Afro-Caribbean ethnicity is the second risk factor, in magnitude, found in populations tested by FMF, which was not confirmed in a Brazilian setting. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the performance of pre-eclampsia prediction software by customization of maternal ethnicity. Methods: This was a cross-sectional observational study, with secondary evaluation of data from FMF first trimester screening tests of singleton pregnancies. Risk scores were calculated from maternal characteristics and biophysical markers, and they were presented as the risk for early pre-eclampsia (PE34) and preterm pre-eclampsia (PE37). The following steps were followed: (1) identification of women characterized as black ethnicity; (2) calculation of early and preterm pre-eclampsia risk, reclassifying them as white, which generated a new score; (3) comparison of the proportions of women categorized as high risk between the original and new scores; (4) construction of the receiver operator characteristic curve; (5) calculation of the area under the curve, sensitivity, and false positive rate; and (6) comparison of the area under the curve, sensitivity, and false positive rate of the original with the new risk by chi-square test. Results: A total of 1531 cases were included in the final sample, with 219 out of 1531 cases (14.30; 95% CI 12.5-16.0) and 182 out of 1531 cases (11.88%; 95% CI 10.3-13.5) classified as high risk for pre-eclampsia development, originally and after recalculating the new risk, respectively. The comparison of FMF2012 predictive model performance between the originally estimated risks and the estimated new risks showed that the difference was not significant for sensitivity and area under the curve, but it was significant for false positive rate. Conclusions: We conclude that black ethnicity classification of Brazilian pregnant women by the FMF2012 algorithm increases the false positive rate. Suppressing ethnicity effect did not improve the test sensitivity. By modifying demographic characteristics, it is possible to improve some performance aspects of clinical prediction tests. 
SN  - 1438-8871
UR  - http://www.jmir.org/2019/11/e14738/
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2196/14738
UR  - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31755874
DO  - 10.2196/14738
ID  - info:doi/10.2196/14738
ER  -